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Tag: Bonds ✕
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MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Rules and Guidelines

Insight 6 March 2025 · Jon Webb

In our note from April of 2020, which now feels like half a lifetime ago rather than less than 5 years (it’s not the years but the miles?), we wrote about how COVID and the related crises had “made it clear that in many ways, reality is more like Calvinball” than an orderly system: one where “the rules of the game around the world appear to be in flux”. This week has provided yet more evidence, if any more was needed, for this view.

#Bonds #Equities #Europe #MI2 Partners #US

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Warm and Fuzzy

Insight 14 February 2025 · Jon Webb

Given that it’s Valentine’s Day, some of you may be feeling warm and fuzzy courtesy of a significant other. Of course, others might be married. But for those of you who are following the latest economic data, the warm fuzzy feeling may apply doubly. Consumer spending data could definitely give the impression all is right with the world if BofA’s Moynihan’s data applies across the board, “The bank’s retail customers are spending about 6% more money in the first 40 days of this year compared with the same period in 2024”. (Let’s go ahead and blame the weather/fires for the latest retail sales reading.)

#Bonds #Equities #MI2 Partners #US #Viking Harbour

MI2 Partners – Thoughts From The Divide: Spectacle

Insight 7 February 2025 · Jon Webb

Another week into Trump 2.0 and you’d be forgiven for starting to tune out some of the news around the administration. After all, nothing screams kabuki more than touting “yuge” concessions from the Canadian and Mexican governments that were already in the works… Admittedly it’s two birds with one stone (that was going to be thrown anyway) for the US’s neighbors, but it does make it hard to take the threat of tariffs seriously. That being said, while some of the spectacle is certainly theater, like a bullfight it does come with horns as markets and political actors react to the latest news.

#Bonds #Equities #Europe #Global #MI2 Partners #US

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Friction

Insight 31 January 2025 · Jon Webb

If you’re wondering what the crashing sound is in the background, it’s the bull in the China shop discussed last week as the Trump Administration works up a full head of steam. Will it go through with 25% tariffs on the US’s neighbors? Is there going to be a giant sucking sound in some parts of the economy courtesy of a potential funding freeze on federal grants and loans? Will there be a squeeze in citrus prices due to missing workers in California? The age-old shoulder shrug of “time will tell” certainly applies, but some people aren’t taking the uncertainty sitting down.

#Bonds #Equities #Global #MI2 Partners #US #Viking Harbour

Thoughts from the Divide: Which Way Is Up?

Insight 24 January 2025 · Jon Webb

Trying to understand the Global Economic Impacts of Trump’s Second Term. So far, he has signed more executive orders on his first day than the last ten presidents combined. As of this writing in the middle of the Friday trading day, US markets initially seem impressed, with the S&P reaching an all-time high earlier this week and the Nasdaq 100 and Solactive 200 both higher. There is a bit of pullback today, but we are higher for the week overall. And US markets aren’t alone, Japanese and European equities have had their best performance this year. Maybe Japan and Europe aren’t going to be affected by the Trump tariffs? Last time we looked, they made a whole lot of automobiles, but what do we know?

#Bonds #Commodities #Equities #FX #Global #MI2 Partners

Thoughts From The Divide: Les Bons Temps

Insight 17 January 2025 · Jon Webb

It may be only January, but this week, both markets and data appear to be running with the Mardi Gras slogan, “laissez les bons temps rouler!”. While they haven’t broken out the beads and the hurricanes/Sazeracs just yet, everything is coming up roses.

#Bonds #Equities #MI2 Partners #US

Thoughts From The Divide: How To Know

Insight 7 January 2025 · Jon Webb

Ah! The start of the new year. The new calendar offers so much possibility! A moment of change that seems to come just as we have spent time following traditions and celebrating holidays that have managed to survive. It’s a comforting reminder that while “progress” is relentless, amid the seasonal ebb and flow there are still some things we can rely on. A missed Fed inflation and rates projection, a TFTD that is once again arriving after the end of the year (mea culpa encore), and… a return to the wisdom of Whitney Houston?

#Bonds #Equities #Macro #MI2 Partners #US #Viking Harbour

Thoughts From The Divide: Definitions and Animal Spirits

Insight 5 December 2024 · Jon Webb

We would be the first to admit a tendency towards pedantry: that we enjoy a little definitional punctiliousness. Surely, we are not alone in being amused by then-President Clinton asking, “what the meaning of ’is’ is”. But rather than being a mark of a scholar, this kind of diving into minutiae is often as much a sign of sophistry as it is of sophistication. Case in point was the debate around the definition of “transitory”. It might seem intuitive that trees don’t grow to the sky, but Yellen and crew somehow wanted to argue that that was why they had in fact been right all along in their argument that Covid era inflation was “transitory”. Yes, Janet, you were right that, like all things, this too did pass.

#Bonds #MI2 Partners #US

Thoughts From The Divide: The Harvest

Insight 22 November 2024 · Jon Webb

Even in times of turmoil (see President Lincoln’s Thanksgiving Day Proclamation), fall is a time to give thanks. And what should we be more thankful for than the gift of shopping? Retail sales reflected “continued resilience in the American consumer” and one might think recent Fed surveys are indicative of a new sense of optimism? The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey’s headline index “shot up forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years, and the six-month outlook showed that “firms remained optimistic about future conditions”. The Philadelphia Fed survey was not quite as ebullient in its reading of the current environment, the headline index dropping from 10.3 to -5.5 (a section headline drily noting “Most Current Indicators Soften”), but, on balance, the sense of optimism was palpable and mirrored the Empire Fed, (“Most Future Indicators Rise”) with the future a…

#Bonds #Equities #MI2 Partners #US

Thoughts From The Divide: Winners and Losers

Insight 8 November 2024 · Jon Webb

In a stroke of luck (from the perspective of clarity) it turns out concerns about the possibility of a long, protracted election fight was wide of the mark. The Presidential election was called quickly (though at the time of writing, control of the House is still up in the air.) But as Trump trots to the “winner’s circle”, markets are still busy correcting commentators regarding just who the winners and losers of Trump v2.0 will be.

#Bonds #Equities #US