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Tag: Europe
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MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Rules and Guidelines

Insight 6 March 2025 · Jon Webb

In our note from April of 2020, which now feels like half a lifetime ago rather than less than 5 years (it’s not the years but the miles?), we wrote about how COVID and the related crises had “made it clear that in many ways, reality is more like Calvinball” than an orderly system: one where “the rules of the game around the world appear to be in flux”. This week has provided yet more evidence, if any more was needed, for this view.

MI2 Partners – Thoughts From The Divide: Spectacle

Insight 7 February 2025 · Jon Webb

Another week into Trump 2.0 and you’d be forgiven for starting to tune out some of the news around the administration. After all, nothing screams kabuki more than touting “yuge” concessions from the Canadian and Mexican governments that were already in the works… Admittedly it’s two birds with one stone (that was going to be thrown anyway) for the US’s neighbors, but it does make it hard to take the threat of tariffs seriously. That being said, while some of the spectacle is certainly theater, like a bullfight it does come with horns as markets and political actors react to the latest news.

Thoughts From The Divide: The Right Time to Strike

Insight 7 June 2024 · Jon Webb

The saying is that one should wait until you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes before firing, but are there times when it’s worth waiting until you feel their breath? Case in point, the “whites” (losses) are certainly visible now in real estate debt, as we’ve highlighted in these pages, with the obvious consequences for owners of real estate debt. The latest data from the FDIC served to further highlight the obvious, warning that there are “63 ‘problem banks’ and $517 billion in unrealized losses” courtesy of higher rates hurting bank holdings of fixed income.

Thoughts From The Divide: The Little Things

Insight 24 May 2024 · Jon Webb

Following the warnings from Walmart’s earnings last week, Target announced earnings this week and saw its stock walloped. As the CEO noted, “The ‘biggest challenges’ Target is hearing from its shoppers are ‘inflation in food and household essentials’”, further adding that “inflation is putting a ‘strain on the consumer wallet.’”

Thoughts From The Divide: Strength in Numbers

Insight 21 March 2024 · Jon Webb

The rest of the world isn’t quite experiencing the same economic momentum as the US (the latest S&P Flash PMI noted that “input costs rose at the fastest pace in six months, while firms increased their selling prices to the largest extent since April last year”), making cuts a more palatable choice, but we feel for the Fed, who wants to be the odd man out?

Thoughts From the Divide: Attribution

Insight 1 March 2024 · Jon Webb

In April of last year, Huw Pill caught flack for saying that Brits “need to accept that they’re worse off”. This was followed by John Authers coming to the defense of the pilloried BoE chief economist. As we wrote, Authers noted that the comments were taken out of context and explained that the BoE’s Chief Economist was describing how “after a few external shocks, inflation becomes a collective action problem” where “ideally everyone would take a share of the hit, and then they can move on. Human nature isn’t like that, and as a result, economics isn’t like that”. Now, roughly a year later, the BoE’s Catherine Mann has picked up Mr. Authers’ baton. It turns out that people who can maintain their standard of living will tend to do just that! Bemoaning the “challenge” of bringing inflation back to target, Mann said there was “a lack of consumer discipline” to rein in businesses’ pricing p…

Thoughts From the Divide: Subjest to Change

Insight 30 January 2024 · Jon Webb

As the saying goes, “needs must when the devil drives”. We have no problem understanding the Fed’s decision to announce (at 7pm last night) that the details of the BTFP program needed to be altered. The problem was the overly juicy arbitrage, whereby banks could use the BTFP window to flip cash from the Fed into the RRP and pocket the not-insubstantial difference. We were impressed by the chutzpah involved in arbitraging two Fed facilities!

USD Pivot Lower in 2024 – MI2 for C8

Insight 8 December 2023 · Jon Webb · 1 file(s)

MI2 currently has a bias for cyclical USD weakness as we progress into 2024, but this weakness could easily morph into an environment of secular USD decline. The early signs of USD weakness are falling into place, and with the current complacent consensus of stable FX relationships within the G4, the risk is building for a decisive break from the prevailing regime. Below, we segment our analysis to line up our skittles for a consensus-busting weak USD impulse.

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Trendrating now available on C8 Studio

Newsletter 17 May 2023 · Jon Webb

C8 Technologies is pleased to announce that seven Trendrating indices will now be available through the C8 platform. The strategies will be available to C8 clients to be accessed through a direct index and will be fully included in C8 Studio, thus available to be combined with other strategies and allocations optimized to create complete portfolio solutions for clients. We then use C8 Studio to demonstrate the new indices.

C8 Weekly Bulletin: AI Investing with Brain

Newsletter 26 April 2023 · Jon Webb

The C8 Weekly Bulletin returns after an Easter break with the announcement that Brain, an AI-driven research provider, has now joined the C8 platform. Brain has developed NODES; an integrated Artificial Intelligence Engine that combines Artificial Intelligence algorithms with proprietary Natural Language Processing techniques to process a large volume of external information.

C8 Weekly Bulletin: The asset class ‘du jour’ – corporate bonds!

Newsletter 15 February 2023 · Jon Webb

The latest Financial Times opinion piece 'The Long View' flags investor interest in an exciting new asset class – not crypto, not AI-driven stocks… but newly higher-yielding corporate bonds! January data on ETF inflows certainly underlined the revived US investor appetite for fixed income with overall inflows running slightly of those into equities. Amid this constructive backdrop, USD and EUR corporate bond markets begin 2023 on a robust note.

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Europe performs well in ‘long only’ recovery

Newsletter 16 January 2023 · Robert Minikin

The new calendar year has begun with an explosive extension of the 'long only' asset rally which has been underway since last October’s Fed signal of smaller rate hikes. The positive case for European asset markets specifically been reinforced by a new slide in regional natural prices – to levels last seen ahead of the Ukraine invasion. In this Weekly Bulletin, we take a look at how investors can build European asset market exposure on the C8 platform.

C8’s Weekly Bulletin: Seasons Greetings!

Newsletter 22 December 2022 · Jon Webb

It has been another strong year for C8 Technologies, as we continue to expand and spread the direct indexing message worldwide. We could not have done it without you all, our clients, partners and friends. We are very grateful for all your support in sharing our journey and achievements. Thank you! May we wish you the season's greetings and best wishes for 2023. For our final issue of the year, we highlight the recent recovery in interest rate and bond markets, and in 'long-only' allocation strategies, both of which were hit hard in the first three quarters of 2022.

C8 Weekly Bulletin; No, that is not AI

Newsletter 14 December 2022 · Robert Minikin

This week's issue is guest edited by one of our index providers, Axyon AI. Based in Italy, Axyon AI is a fintech company with a mission to bring AI-powered predictive value to the investment management industry. Using C8 Studio, the performance of Axyon AI's equity indices are then compared with classic market-cap weighted benchmarks.

C8 Weekly Bulletin: New Provider – Arabesque

Newsletter 29 November 2022 · Robert Minikin

C8 are delighted that Arabesque has joined the C8 ecosystem. Arabesque have a well-respected ESG ratings business, S-Ray, as well as an innovative AI-driven investment allocation platform, combining both to be the world's first AI ESG fund manager. We then illustrate how C8 Studio can be used to build a portfolio of their AI ESG indices.

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Central banks meet amid forecast failures

Newsletter 20 September 2022 · Robert Minikin

Welcome to our first issue of the C8 Weekly Bulletin. With many years of market experience, we at C8 see real benefits from having a concise overview of key economic and policy developments, whatever the specific investment approach. We are happy to share this overview with our clients and partners, and, where appropriate, highlight indices on C8 Studio which resonate with the current market environment.