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The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update
Our FX systems started the year with ashort USD bias (against the general consensus for a stronger USD). For the first three weeks this bias worked well as fears of blanket US tariffs did not materialize, however, in the final week of January, tariffs were announced on Mexico, Canada and China leading to some renewed USD strength. Nevertheless, so far, the measures that have been taken (with some already suspended for now) have not been as bad as feared. Looking forward to this month, we note the signals are more mixed for the USD though our hedge ratios remain negative USD for the largest currencies: EUR, GBP and JPY.
Another week into Trump 2.0 and you’d be forgiven for starting to tune out some of the news around the administration. After all, nothing screams kabuki more than touting “yuge” concessions from the Canadian and Mexican governments that were already in the works… Admittedly it’s two birds with one stone (that was going to be thrown anyway) for the US’s neighbors, but it does make it hard to take the threat of tariffs seriously. That being said, while some of the spectacle is certainly theater, like a bullfight it does come with horns as markets and political actors react to the latest news.
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update
If you’re wondering what the crashing sound is in the background, it’s the bull in the China shop discussed last week as the Trump Administration works up a full head of steam. Will it go through with 25% tariffs on the US’s neighbors? Is there going to be a giant sucking sound in some parts of the economy courtesy of a potential funding freeze on federal grants and loans? Will there be a squeeze in citrus prices due to missing workers in California? The age-old shoulder shrug of “time will tell” certainly applies, but some people aren’t taking the uncertainty sitting down.
Trying to understand the Global Economic Impacts of Trump’s Second Term. So far, he has signed more executive orders on his first day than the last ten presidents combined. As of this writing in the middle of the Friday trading day, US markets initially seem impressed, with the S&P reaching an all-time high earlier this week and the Nasdaq 100 and Solactive 200 both higher. There is a bit of pullback today, but we are higher for the week overall. And US markets aren’t alone, Japanese and European equities have had their best performance this year. Maybe Japan and Europe aren’t going to be affected by the Trump tariffs? Last time we looked, they made a whole lot of automobiles, but what do we know?
Our FX models for USD against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and NOK, which were largely USD positive last year, reversed in January. In particular, our reversion models are suggesting some strength in these currencies against USD in the near term. Nevertheless, the continued outperformance of the US economy, alongside sluggish growth in Europe, suggests that any USD reversal will not be sustained.
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update
The strong USD bias worked well for our FX models last month, with our dynamic hedge adding over 1% outperformance for EURUSD and GBPUSD, and over 3% for USDJPY. We note, however, that our models have now moved to neutral for the USD against the EUR and GBP, though still look for higher USDJPY. Reducing FX risk may well be sensible given the closeness of the US Presidential election, and doubts about the accuracy of polls. Though, as we note overleaf, late momentum now marginally favours Harris.
A strong start from Currency Compass last month, where we called for a 50bp Fed rate cut camp but noting our currency models point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness, so any bounce is a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges. Indeed it was, with EURUSD hitting 1.12 and GBPUSD 1.34 before falling back. Stronger US data, in particular the employment report, helped cement this view, the chart below illustrates how recent US data has pushed up the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast from 2% to above 3%.
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
