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Research, market insights, press releases and documents for professional investors — from C8 Technologies and our global index and research partners.

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C8 Currency Compass – USD Correction II – February 2025

Newsletter 13 February 2025 · Jon Webb

Our FX systems started the year with ashort USD bias (against the general consensus for a stronger USD). For the first three weeks this bias worked well as fears of blanket US tariffs did not materialize, however, in the final week of January, tariffs were announced on Mexico, Canada and China leading to some renewed USD strength. Nevertheless, so far, the measures that have been taken (with some already suspended for now) have not been as bad as feared. Looking forward to this month, we note the signals are more mixed for the USD though our hedge ratios remain negative USD for the largest currencies: EUR, GBP and JPY.

#C8 #FX #Global #Viking Harbour

C8 Currency Compass – USD Correction – January 2025

Newsletter 17 January 2025 · Jon Webb

Our FX models for USD against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and NOK, which were largely USD positive last year, reversed in January. In particular, our reversion models are suggesting some strength in these currencies against USD in the near term. Nevertheless, the continued outperformance of the US economy, alongside sluggish growth in Europe, suggests that any USD reversal will not be sustained.

#C8 #FX #Global #Macro #Risk Premia #Trend Following

C8 Hedge – Currency Compass – Election Special – November 2024

Newsletter 4 November 2024 · Jon Webb

The strong USD bias worked well for our FX models last month, with our dynamic hedge adding over 1% outperformance for EURUSD and GBPUSD, and over 3% for USDJPY. We note, however, that our models have now moved to neutral for the USD against the EUR and GBP, though still look for higher USDJPY. Reducing FX risk may well be sensible given the closeness of the US Presidential election, and doubts about the accuracy of polls. Though, as we note overleaf, late momentum now marginally favours Harris.

#C8 #FX #Global #Macro

C8 Currency Compass – October 2024

Newsletter 15 October 2024 · Jon Webb · 1 file(s)

A strong start from Currency Compass last month, where we called for a 50bp Fed rate cut camp but noting our currency models point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness, so any bounce is a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges. Indeed it was, with EURUSD hitting 1.12 and GBPUSD 1.34 before falling back. Stronger US data, in particular the employment report, helped cement this view, the chart below illustrates how recent US data has pushed up the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast from 2% to above 3%.

#C8 #FX #Global #Macro #Trend Following

C8 Currency Compass – September 2024

Newsletter 18 September 2024 · Jon Webb

We are firmly in the 50bp rate cut camp – if the Fed is worried about employment, they need to get ahead of the curve. This is likely to put further pressure on the USD in the near term. USDJPY has hit its downside target (see below) so the benefit is more likely to accrue to the EUR and GBP. We also see the BoJ on hold this week, which adds weight to this view. However, we note our systematic models still point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness over time, so any bounce may prove a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges.

#Asia #C8 #FX #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Thor Financial now available on C8 Studio

Newsletter 1 June 2023 · Jon Webb

C8 Technologies is pleased to announce that five indices derived from Thor Financial Technologies will now be available through the C8 platform. The strategies will be available to C8 clients to be accessed through direct indexing and will be fully included in C8 studio and thus available to be combined with other strategies and allocations optimized to create complete portfolio solutions for clients.

#Equities #Long Only

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Trendrating now available on C8 Studio

Newsletter 17 May 2023 · Jon Webb

C8 Technologies is pleased to announce that seven Trendrating indices will now be available through the C8 platform. The strategies will be available to C8 clients to be accessed through a direct index and will be fully included in C8 Studio, thus available to be combined with other strategies and allocations optimized to create complete portfolio solutions for clients. We then use C8 Studio to demonstrate the new indices.

#Equities #Europe #Long Only #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Direct Indexing and Capturing EM Trends with EVOLIDS

Newsletter 4 May 2023 · Jon Webb

One of our index providers, EVOLIDS, has produced a great piece on the advantages of Direct Indexing. Over the past year there has been increasing focus on opportunities in Emerging Market equities on the back of higher commodity prices, and inflation in developed markets. Access the EVOLIDS Global Emerging Markets Long/Short Index on C8 Studio to take advantage of this renewed volatility.

#C8 Studio #Equities #Global #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: AI Investing with Brain

Newsletter 26 April 2023 · Jon Webb

The C8 Weekly Bulletin returns after an Easter break with the announcement that Brain, an AI-driven research provider, has now joined the C8 platform. Brain has developed NODES; an integrated Artificial Intelligence Engine that combines Artificial Intelligence algorithms with proprietary Natural Language Processing techniques to process a large volume of external information.

#Equities #Europe #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Trend-following in Volatile Times – the C8 Way

Newsletter 23 March 2023 · Jon Webb

The first quarter of 2023 has been notable for its skittish financial markets. First, there was optimism that this year would prove calmer than 2022, followed by renewed concern about inflation and the impact of bond holdings in the US banking system. This culminated in the forced takeover of Credit Suisse at the weekend. Traditional trend-following strategies performed strongly in 2022, but these rapid shifts in sentiment have proved more difficult to navigate. The SocGen CTA index is down 6% year-to-date, and down nearly 10% in the past week. Here is the good news! The C8 Global Active Futures index avoided this sell-off and remains up on the year. Why the difference? C8's proprietary allocation process selects from a wide range of trend and counter-trend strategies, and is responsive to volatility levels, so adapts more readily to changing market environments.

#C8 #Futures #Global #Trend Following

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Trendrating on US Bank Stocks

Newsletter 14 March 2023 · Jon Webb

C8 Technologies are delighted to announce that Trendrating will be adding 7 US and European equity indices to C8 Studio. They have been working with investors over the past 10 years to enhance equity portfolios, using a proprietary methodology which focuses on determining the ongoing trend in individual equities. Trendrating have just produced a timely report on US bank stocks which they have kindly allowed C8 to share. This illustrates that, whilst the Silicon Valley Bank failure had idiosyncratic issues, investors perceive a much wider problem with smaller US banks.

#Long/Short #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Can US Earnings Rebound as Forecast

Newsletter 28 February 2023 · Scott Douglass

We follow-up from last week’s piece by IVI Capital on US debt dynamics, with an interesting analysis from Boutique CIO on the overly optimistic forecasts of US earnings recovery later in the year. Lower earnings growth drive a lower US equity risk premium, with market expectations of US Fed funds…

#Equities

C8 Weekly Bulletin: The asset class ‘du jour’ – corporate bonds!

Newsletter 15 February 2023 · Jon Webb

The latest Financial Times opinion piece 'The Long View' flags investor interest in an exciting new asset class – not crypto, not AI-driven stocks… but newly higher-yielding corporate bonds! January data on ETF inflows certainly underlined the revived US investor appetite for fixed income with overall inflows running slightly of those into equities. Amid this constructive backdrop, USD and EUR corporate bond markets begin 2023 on a robust note.

#Bonds #C8-IHS #Europe #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Backing Value over Defensive – NDR’s Smart Sector

Newsletter 8 February 2023 · Jon Webb

January’s 6.2% advance in the US S&P500 index was far from uniform with sector performances stretching from a 15% gain in consumer discretionary to a 2% retreat in utilities. Given the importance of sectoral positioning - alongside overall market-directional bets - this week we give the opportunity to our index provider, Ned David Research, to outline the big calls from its 'Dan Hagen/ NDR Smart Sector with Catastrophic Stop' strategy.

#Equities #Ned Davis Research #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Return to Income

Newsletter 25 January 2023 · Robert Minikin

Whilst the New Year's recovery in stock markets has grabbed much of the headlines, we also note that last year's fixed income sell-off has created opportunities in income products. This week we illustrate this using C8 Studio, with income-generating indices from Vettafi.

#Alerian/ S-Network #Bonds #Long Only #US

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Europe performs well in ‘long only’ recovery

Newsletter 16 January 2023 · Robert Minikin

The new calendar year has begun with an explosive extension of the 'long only' asset rally which has been underway since last October’s Fed signal of smaller rate hikes. The positive case for European asset markets specifically been reinforced by a new slide in regional natural prices – to levels last seen ahead of the Ukraine invasion. In this Weekly Bulletin, we take a look at how investors can build European asset market exposure on the C8 platform.

#Bonds #C8 #C8 Studio #Equities #Europe #Long Only